Jensen Huang’s Bold Prediction at the 2024 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Summit
PALO ALTO, California (AI Reporter/News): Nvidia’s Chief Executive, Jensen Huang, made a bold prediction at the 2024 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Summit. He stated that artificial general intelligence (AGI) could, by some definitions, arrive in as little as five years.
Defining AGI
Huang, who leads the world’s premier maker of artificial intelligence chips, responded to a question about the timeline for achieving Silicon Valley’s long-standing goal of creating computers that can think like humans. He said, “The answer largely depends on how the goal is defined. If the definition is the ability to pass human tests, AGI will arrive soon.”
While Huang believes AI will soon pass various tests, reaching true human-like intelligence remains a complex challenge. The discussion highlights the need for both technological advancements and well-defined goals for responsible AI development.
The Five-Year Prediction
Huang further elaborated, “If I gave an AI every single test that you can possibly imagine, you make that list of tests and put it in front of the computer science industry, and I’m guessing in five years’ time, we’ll do well on every single one.” His firm, Nvidia, hit a market value of $2 trillion on the same day.
Current State of AI
As of now, AI can pass tests such as legal bar exams but still struggles on specialized medical tests such as gastroenterology. However, Huang is optimistic that in five years, AI should also be able to pass any of them.
Scientists still disagree on how to describe how human minds work. Therefore, it’s hard to achieve as an engineer because engineers need defined goals.
Jensen Huang, Chief Executive, Nvidia
The Challenges Ahead
Despite his optimism, Huang acknowledged that by other definitions, AGI may be much further away. He explained, “Scientists still disagree on how to describe how human minds work. Therefore, it’s hard to achieve as an engineer because engineers need defined goals.”
The Need for More Chip Factories
Addressing a question about the expansion of the AI industry, Huang agreed with OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman’s view that many more chip factories, or “fabs,” are needed.
However, he also pointed out that each chip will get better over time, which acts to limit the number of chips needed. He concluded, “We’re going to need more fabs. However, remember that we’re also improving the algorithms and the processing of AI tremendously over time. It’s not as if the efficiency of computing is what it is today, and therefore the demand is this much. I’m improving computing by a million times over 10 years.”
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